Exchangeability, Representation Theorems, and Subjectivity
نویسنده
چکیده
According to Bruno de Finetti’s Representation Theorem, exchangeable beliefs over infinite sequences of observable Bernoulli quantities can be represented as mixtures of independent coin tossing experiments. Extensions of this theorem give rise to representations as mixtures of other familiar sampling distributions. This paper offers a subjectivist primer based on the premise that appreciation of these theorems enhances understanding of the subjective interpretation of probability, of its connection to the more prevalent frequentist interpretation, and of its usefulness as a context in which to view parameters, priors, and likelihoods.
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